UK restaurant sector to grow to £19.6bn by 2028

A group of business people toasting a deal over  food and drink
Food and drink M&A will continue to rise in 2025, if market conditions remain favourable (Getty Images)

The UK restaurant sector is forecast to grow at a modest 1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three years, reaching a value of £19.6bn in 2028.

This year, the market is expected to grow in value by 0.8%, reaching £19bn. However, while growth has been achieved compared to the previous year, the figure remains 1.8% below the value of the market in 2019.

The latest figures have been revealed in Lumina Intelligence’s new UK Restaurant Market Report, which shows that the current growth in the market is being driven by modest price inflation rather than volume recovery, as fragile consumer confidence, rising staff costs and business-rate cuts temper gains.

The reports also points to a slowdown in the decline in the number of hospitality sites is, with a net loss of five restaurants per week in 2025.

Expansion in the branded sector is being driven by franchising and regional clustering, with legacy casual-dining chains, including recently Pizza Hut, continuing to rationalise mature estates.

Fast food brands continue to outperform the wider sector and are forecast to grow their value by 6.4% (CAGR), between 2022 and 2025, to £17.7bn, while growth in service-led restaurants is expected to be a more modest 2.1%.

To find out more about the report, contact Linda Haden at linda.haden@wrbm.com