The growth rate of new openings across restaurants, pubs and bakeries rose 1% in January and February compared to the same months the previous year, according to foodservice industry insights company Meaningful Vision.
The number of fast food restaurants rose by 2.1%, while the quick service restaurants and bakery and sandwich segments remained on the same growth trajectory from 2024.
Chicken shops saw an uptick in numbers following a surge in openings from new international players, however overall figures were lower than January and February the previous year, suggesting a slight deceleration in expansion.
The figures, which are based on the tracking of more than 60,000 of the UK’s quick service restaurants, casual dining establishments, bakeries, coffee shops and pubs, also show a year-on-year drop in footfall in January and February.
Market traffic across the industry declined by 2%, with restaurants experiencing the largest drop of 7.7%. Pubs were down by 6.2%, having previously increased by 2.7% from 2024 vs 2023.
While footfall continued its negative momentum into early 2025, February’s decline was partly driven by calendar variance, says Meaningful Vision, with one fewer trading day than the previous year.
The rate of price increases during January and February reached 6% in restaurants and 3% in retail, showing some increase compared to December 2024. While in 2024 restaurants increased the number of promotional offers by 25%, in 2025 this increase has reached 15%.
Offering special prices was a top tactic among price promotions in restaurants, up from 70% in 2023 to 71% in 2024. Offering a percentage discount was top within delivery, rising from 34% to 49% in 2024.
“As predicted, the start of 2025 has been tough, with a marked slowdown in those eating out as consumers adjust spending habits in response to economic uncertainty,” says Maria Vanifatova, CEO of Meaningful Vision.
“We’ve also seen tough market conditions drive price increases. Though this was recorded at 6% Jan-Feb this year, with government tax changes set to push inflation up to 7-8% from April, price sensitivity will likely continue affecting footfall negatively.”
“Despite these challenges, we are seeing some signs of positivity, with fast food stores expanding, and daytime and evening footfall experiencing some signs of recovery.”
Meaningful Vision predicts a growth in healthier-focused chains and rising office attendance, with large firms expected to return to five-day working weeks within three years, boosting trade for morning and lunch essentials like coffee and sandwiches.