UK restaurant market to experience only marginal growth this year

Hospitality job losses since October 2024 Budget
Government warned: hospitality has lost 69,000 jobs since the Budget in October 2024 (Getty Images)

The UK restaurant market is expected to grow marginally by just 0.9% in 2025, lagging behind the total eating out market’s growth of 2.6%.

Estate rationalisation, rising costs, margin pressures, and shifts in consumer spending, which continue to challenge the sector, according to Lumina Intelligence, which has published a new report into the state of the UK’s eating out sector.

The restaurant market is set to value £19.1bn this year, according to the latest Operator Data, with leading restaurant groups forecast to experience turnover growth of 1.8%.

While large brands like Wagamama continue to expand, growth is being driven mainly by smaller players, says Lumina.

It also points to private equity investment, which it says is driving the next wave of growth by accelerating rollouts for brands. Deals this year include Flat Iron’s acquisition by McWin and TriSpan, as well as L Catterton’s investment in Dishoom.

These underscore the market’s appetite for scalable, experience-led concepts with global potential, according to Lumina.