Just over half (51%) of leaders feel confident about prospects for their business over the next 12 months, up significantly from the five-year low of 26% in October 2025, according to the latest Business Confidence Survey from NIQ, powered by CGA intelligence, and Zonal.
The number of leaders feeling optimistic about the future of hospitality in general also bounced back, from 13% in late 2025 to 31% in the latest poll. Both confidence metrics are now at their highest points since mid-2024, but they remain well below pre-COVID levels.
Confidence has been boosted by the strong end to 2025 for sales and profits in the sector. Two thirds of leaders (66%) say their business’ fourth-quarter revenue had increased year-on-year - 20 percentage points more than in the third-quarter - while only 18% recorded a decline.
More than two fifths (43%) achieved higher profits and 30% saw them fall.
However, just 16% of independent leaders say they feel confident about their business’ prospects, and just under a quarter (24%) of single-site operators increased their revenue in 2025.
Rising costs a concern
Despite a rise in optimism, many leaders remain worried about the impact of rising inflation. Nearly nine in 10 (88%) say increased employment costs are a concern for 2026, and nearly three quarters are concerned about food and drink inflation (73%) and business rates (71%). Other taxes, energy prices and property costs are among many more causes of concern for leaders in early 2026.
Businesses have also been forced to make changes to menu prices and staffing levels. Rising employment costs have led many businesses to cut team numbers or reduce hours, and half (50%) of leaders agree that being short-staffed has become ‘the new normal’.
“An uptick in confidence after a strong Christmas is a very welcome sign of hospitality’s resilience in the face of relentless challenges. However, there is still widespread uncertainty about prospects, and while it’s great to see managed groups increasingly bullish about new openings there are alarming signs of stress among smaller businesses,” says Karl Chessell, director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA at NIQ.
“Independents are the lifeblood of hospitality and the big brands of the future, but they have been overwhelmed by costs in recent years. Hospitality as a whole is in urgent need of targeted interventions from government if it is to sustain its contributions to the UK’s economy and jobs.”
Tim Chapman, chief commercial officer, Zonal, adds: “This report shows that hospitality leaders are feeling more confident in the sector again and facing the future with more positivity, even though the trading environment remains challenging.
“It’s good to see that operators are planning to invest in in priority areas through 2026, such as technology and that they recognise the critical role it will play in streamlining operations, saving costs, easing staff pressure, and delivering against rising customer expectations.
“No one is saying the next 12 months will be easy but the findings really demonstrate the resilience of our industry.”