The latest quarterly Operator Data Index (ODI) shows the segment will see turnover growth of 1% despite a 0.9% decline in outlets to 25,915.
Branded restaurants are forecast to increase turnover by 3%, despite broadly flat outlet growth of 0.2%, driven by continued premiumisation, operational discipline and expansion among high-performing brands.
Fine dining is set to lead the market with turnover growth of 4.1% and outlet growth of 2.5%, supported by resilient higher-income demand.
Independents, meanwhile, remain under pressure with turnover forecast to decline by 0.5% and outlet numbers falling by 1.2%.
The index notes that rising operating costs and weaker consumer demand continue to drive closures and consolidation, particularly among smaller operators.
For the top ten branded restaurant operators, growth in estate sizes of 0.3% is forecast in 2026 following a 3.5% contraction the year before, while turnover is set to rise by 4.9% to £3.5bn.
Across the branded space, the fastest-growing restaurant operators are forecast to remain concentrated among smaller, expansion-led concepts in 2026.
Maki & Ramen and Afrikana are set to lead outlet growth at +37.5%, while Hickory’s Smokehouse follows at +31.4%, supported by continued rollout across the UK.
Growth also remains strong across Ottolenghi, Bistrot Pierre and Rudy’s, highlighting sustained expansion among differentiated restaurant brands with clear consumer positioning.
The fastest turnover growth is forecast to remain concentrated among outlet expansion-led concepts with Maki & Ramen leading turnover growth at +45.9%.
Afrikana and Hickory’s Smokehouse follow at +31.2% and +24.2%, respectively, while Yard Sale Pizza, Ottolenghi and Pizza Pilgrims also record double-digit gains.
The index states that strong growth across these brands reflects the continued success of differentiated, scalable concepts expanding into new locations and driving higher sales through maturing estates.
Assessing the key initiatives from the second quarter of the year, the ODI highlights how delivery partnerships have become a more deliberate growth lever for restaurants.
Wagamama, for example, partnered with Uber Eats in April 2026 – its first new delivery partnership in ten years.
The rollout began in Newcastle before expanding nationally, with the brands also planning joint activity across the Soul Club and Uber One loyalty programmes.
Banana Tree, meanwhile, launched a nationwide partnership with Uber Eats across all UK locations in May 2026.