UK café market set to exceed 2019 value in 2022

By James McAllister

- Last updated on GMT

Coffee shop, sandwich and bakery market set to exceed 2019 market value in 2022

Related tags Lumina Intelligence Casual dining Café Coffee shops bakery

The total UK coffee shop, sandwich and bakery market is set to exceed its 2019 market value in 2022, according to the latest data from Lumina Intelligence's Operator Data Index.

Figures show the UK café market is expected to grow 14.4% to £4.6bn in 2022, and reach 11,132 outlets.

Branded coffee shops, cafés and dessert parlours are expected to see robust growth, with the value rising 9.5% to £3bn. This is underpinned by continued physical expansion, with leading coffee operators announcing ambitious expansion plans.

Operators are also tapping into pandemic legacies for more car use and hybrid working, targeting drive thru openings in community and travel hubs.

Independent coffee shops and cafés, meanwhile, are expected to see growth of 25.3% this year, taking the value of the segment to £1.6bn.

The segment is also expected to see robust outlet growth, with a resurgence in local high streets following the uptake in hybrid working.

Sandwich and bakery market to grow by 12.9%

Branded bakery-led venues are expected to see robust turnover growth in 2022, up 9.5% to £1.7bn. This is underpinned by a strong performance from the market leader, Greggs.

The independent bakery segment is expected to see the bulk of its recovery in 2022, growing 18.4% to £1.4bn. 

Branded sandwich retailers, led by market leader Subway, are expected to see 8.1% value growth in 2022, with operators recovering as city centre footfall picks up, as well as continuing to see growth in other formats including travel hub locations, forecourts and delivery.

Independent sandwich retailers are expected to see the bulk of recovery in 2022, up 18.5% to £800m, as city centre footfall picks up and travel and tourism recovers throughout the UK.

Strong growth forecast for top café chains

Costa is set to be the leading brand by turnover in 2022, growing 9.2% year-on-year; with Greggs second, growing 9.6%.

Gail’s Artisan Bakery leads turnover growth - up 31.4% - among the top ten largest operators by turnover, as its central London sites are expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Across the total market, from a turnover perspective, Tim Hortons is set to be the fastest growing, with expected growth of 57.1% in 2022. Wenzel’s and Little Dessert Shop make up the top three fastest growing brands.

“Despite significant challenges, lower ticket solutions and channels remained well insulated from the catastrophic impact of the pandemic,” says Katherine Prowse, senior insight manager at Lumina Intelligence.

“This is evident in the swift recovery made by coffee and sandwich shop operators.

“Furthermore, as the cost of living increases, these lower ticket solutions are set to become more attractive to consumers who are keeping a closer eye on outgoings. This, alongside major operators targeting travel hubs and innovating into drive-thru will result in strong growth for the market in 2022.”

Find out more about Lumina Intelligence’s Operator Data Index here​.

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