The report, from Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD), predicts that the away from home market will grow from £103.3bn in 2026 to £122.8bn by 2031, although inflation will account for around 85% of total value growth.
IGD’s forecast reflects weaker footfall across full-service restaurants, quick-service restaurants, and pubs during 2025, alongside lower than expected price inflation as operations absorbed rising costs rather than risking further reduction in customer visits.
Despite the challenging outlook, IGD expects 2029 to be a turning point, with volume recovery beginning as demand gradually strengthens due to improved economic conditions and modest gains in disposable income.
Quick service restaurants will remain relatively resilient due to their value positioning and convenience, according to the report. However, lower-income consumers reducing spend and down trading opportunities becoming more limited will temper growth.
In contrast, full-service restaurants and pubs face a slower recovery, with ongoing pressures on visit frequency, margins and spend per occasion continuing to weigh on performance.
“While pressures will continue over the next few years, the horizon shows promise, and businesses can emerge strongly if they focus investments on value, experiences, and operational efficiency in the meantime,” says Nicola Knight, head of Away From Home Insight at IGD.
“As consumers become more selective, the best way for businesses to outperform the market is by understanding which occasions their customers are still prepared to prioritise and building propositions around them.”