While the world’s attention turns to the football in North America, hospitality in the UK will no doubt be keeping one eye on a competition playing out a little closer to home in the coming weeks. Certainly, less glamourous and hopefully less corrupt, the forthcoming Makerfield by-election could hold a prize for the sector as sought after as a reasonably priced entry ticket to the World Cup finals.
Makerfield, which is part of Greater Manchester, may be a small constituency, but it is now the backdrop to one of the biggest political battles in our recent history. On the right there’s Nigel Farage’s Reform party, here represented by Robert Kenyon, a problematic plumber who appears to harbour some deeply troubling misogynistic views. They themselves are being outflanked on the far right by Rupert Lowe’s Restore party, which is supported by that true bastion of British values, Elon Musk.
On the left there is just one candidate with a realistic shot at supremacy. And thanks to that split on the right, Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is currently leading the race to be Makerfield’s next MP, a trajectory that would almost certainly take him all the way to Downing Street and install him as Britain’s next Prime Minister.
For those who have found themselves increasingly disenfranchised by Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’ business agenda, which many believe could not be less supportive of our industry, the prospect of a Burnham premiership may provide a sense of relief. Not least because the man once dubbed the ‘King of the North’ has already promised to shower hospitality with shiny trinkets should he take Labour’s crown.
While Blair had education, Thatcher had free markets, Brown had social justice and Cameron had austerity, Burnham’s big project, it would seem, is the rejuvenation of British highstreets. Making his first policy pledge earlier this month he vowed to abolish business rates for cafés and cut rates for pubs and music venues by 20% if he becomes Prime Minister. Indeed, he even went as far as to accuse the current government of ‘undervaluing’ the importance of pubs to their local communities.
Adding further scale to his vision, he also said he would abolish business rates for shops and hairdressers and would increase the threshold at which small businesses start paying business rates to £18,000 from the current £12,000.
Additionally, the threshold under which businesses receive ‘tapered’ relief would increase from £15,000 to £21,000. The tax relief would be limited to single-site businesses and specifically designed to target family owned shops and hospitality venues, with Burnham claiming the move would mean tens of thousands of small businesses would stop paying business rates entirely.
“Our high streets matter to me because they matter to the people who live here,” he said. “I want to make sure that these family-owned businesses, as the heart and soul of this country, are protected and given the chance to thrive. I am willing to be honest about where we have fallen short and say that my party has got it wrong in government. They have undervalued the contribution that these businesses make to our livelihoods and our communities.”
While understandably not full throated in their support at this early stage of proceedings, the sector’s trade bodies certainly seem to like to cut of Burnham’s jib. Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, said a further 20% cut on top of the current business rates relief would serve as a ‘real boost for the local’.
UKHospitality welcomed Burnham’s recognition that the system is ‘broken’ and in need of reform, but also called for a hospitality-wide solution and a lower rate of VAT; the latter being another thing Burnham has voiced his support for alongside reduced NI contributions for some employers.
High-profile chefs have also come out in support. Wahaca co-founder Thomasina Miers told The Guardian she believes Burnham understands the sector in a way the current administration does not. Meanwhile, Tommy Banks, who owns the Black Swan at Oldstead and Roots in York, said it was a ‘relief’ to hear someone at government level advocating for the sector.
The most high-profile name to throw his backing behind the Labour candidate so far is Tom Kerridge who, as the person also spearheading the sector’s current #VAT’stheProblem campaign, is easily the most influential voice in the sector right now. Speaking at UKHospitality’s Summer Conference earlier this week, Kerridge said he believed Burnham would deliver positive change and come good on the pledges he’s already made.
“I’ve met [Burnham] a number of times and think he will be great,” he said. “He is somebody who will voice opinions and do very, very well with business understanding, particularly within hospitality – we’ve just got to keep knocking on the door and pushing that pressure until he delivers.”
To that end, perhaps the most interesting commitments made by Burnham so far is his support for electoral reform through the introduction of proportional representation. In an interview with The Observer last month, he said: “I am committed to proportional representation. I think it would change the political culture. I don’t see how first past the post and the point-scoring inherent within it lifts Britain out of the doom loop it is in.”
Under the current system, a party can win power with little more than a quarter of the vote, but if its support falls by 17% or 18% it can lose three quarters of its seats. Small swings have big consequences.
Addressing delegates at UKHospitality’s Summer Conference, ITV’s business and economics editor, Joel Hills, described being pro proportional representation as a stance that matters greatly when considering a future Burnham premiership. “The non-cynical argument for proportional representation is that it changes the incentives,” he said. ”If losing a few percentage points no longer threatens political extinction then governments may find it easier to take difficult decisions and tackle long term problems that everyone knows exist, but few politicians feel able to confront.”
Should Burnham get in, the notion of promise versus delivery will be front and centre on the minds of the sector. Burnham knows business rate reductions and VAT cuts are hot topics that will win him votes and support as he fights for No. 10. However, as the current attack on the government’s defence spending shows, there are many big and significant challenges to be faced once in power.
While the pledges he has made so far are impressive, ultimately, they are only effective if kept.